The Curious Case of Alan Shearer

The general practice for the everyday working man or woman is to undertake some form of appraisal process annually, officially or unofficially, to identify what is considered the good, the bad and the indifferent in relation to their day-to-day role. The process is largely to ensure both employee and employer have some fabric to weave what will potential form the following year, mostly for the individual. And when you boil this process down, the key question occupying most employees head when exchanging these ideas is “…am I getting a pay rise this year?”

I doubt whether such structure applies in the ever expanding world of football punditry, if you’re good you get work and if you’re bad or indifferent you’ll probably end up on late night satellite TV phone-in shows, unless of course you’re a former high profile player employed by the BBC.

Top football pundit?

Let’s delve in to the deep realms of fantasy football for a moment and assume the role of said fly on said wall; well paid BBC executive producer confidently sits one side of a table, on the other well know football pundit and one time huge fish in medium sized ponds, Alan Shearer. The chat is casual and jokes are exchanged regarding failed football managers and relegation, a pause and the tone changes, Alan Shearer’s performance review is underway.

Ok, maybe not, but back in the real world if we consider some of the detail regarding world football, Alan Shearer clearly has a knowledge gap in need of improvement.

Rewind back eighteen months; Euro 2008 – England have deservedly failed to qualify for the finals, a fact that bizarrely washes over Alan Shearer’s head. Throughout the tournament as Germany progress, Shearer continues to lament England’s absence with increasing pain, comparing it against Germany’s inclusion and successfully negotiation through to the final. There’s was a static theme in his analysis when discussing Germany, “they are not a good team, they’re a poor team” paraphrasing with absolute effect of course.

Ok, Germany are a poor team, let’s compare shearer’s analysis against the facts. Germany finished runners up in Euro 2008, scored ten goals and had some very impressive performances, notably beating a much fancied Portugal in the Quarter Finals and less not we forget two years prior with much of the same squad, they finished 3^rd at the World Cup playing an entertaining attacking style of football.

Beyond on the facts, granted Germany weren’t glamorous to watch in Euro 2008 (quarter final aside) especially when compared against the much deserved winners Spain, and Jürgen Klinsmann 2006 version.

Shearer’s reasoning for stating ridiculous analysis is not clear, he certainly shoots from the hip and doesn’t appear to consider his opinion before sharing it with the television viewing public, maybe his dislike for all things German blinker his view of the reality? Maybe not?

An insight to the most likely answer was demonstrated during BBC’s coverage of the 2010 World Cup draw. Part of the fun and frolics prior to the draw included plotting England’s opponents in most hypothetical worse and best case scenario’s with the general opinion of worse case pitching England with the USA.

Football encyclopedic, John Motson touched on this paired with a degree of wisdom, declaring England could do well to avoid the Americans. Within in a flash Alan Shearer dismissed it, “if we (England) have to worried about the USA, then we really do have problems”. The point is arguably fair from an English perspective but the tone and arrogance in its delivery displayed a distinct lack of respect to the useful Americans and added further evidence to Shearer’s knowledge gap when discussing World Football matters.

So the draw concluded and England came away with what most will declare as an easy group, the obvious exception the USA, who England will play in Rustenburg in the opening game on 12^th June – on paper maybe but whether this will actually be the case, time will tell.

Returning to the studio, chat was light, there was a general good vide and Shearer chomped in again to reinforce his point – The USA are nothing to worry about. Echo’s of the German analysis?

Back in to the realms of fantasy, we rejoin Shearer’s appraisal process but this time we are the BBC executive not the fly, the suit fits nice and our bank balance is overweight.

We conclude with a summary; “Alan, you questionably have a fair understanding of all things EPL, but in regard to the world of modern football, arguably a subject outside the boundaries of your small pond, you need to put in the hours, for in regard to this topic the curious case of Alan Shearer isn’t to suggest you’re going backwards, but you’re not going forward.”

Spare some tears for Bahrain

Love him or hate him and the majority will pretty much sit in either of those camps, Roy Keane’s view on Ireland’s failure to qualify for the 2010 World Cup Finals deflected the frenzy away from FIFA, France and Thierry Henry and placed it firmly on Ireland themselves and his point was valid.

There’s definitely a question mark over the tone used by Keane to deliver the words that most people were thinking but didn’t have the guts to say, Keane clearly still has an axe to grind with the FAI and those with axes to grind against Keane will certainly fail to accept his valid point.

Ireland’s plight is unfortunate, but they were in control; win a two legged knockout fixture and pack your bags. Having to compete against the current World Cup holders in the group stage and current World Cup runners-up in the play-off is harsh, but that’s the luck of the draw. Deal with it!

Ireland’s hard luck story holds water but it’s not the sole case, not that anyone really cares the Bahrainis will feel they too have been handed a raw deal equally by poor officiating and FIFA!

In 2005 Bahrain were themselves at the centre of a replayed World Cup AFC play-off with Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan suffered an injustice from the referee misinterpreting the rules, they lodged a complaint with FIFA, it was successful and Bahrain knocked them out in the replayed fixture, only for Bahrain themselves to travel to the other side of the world as part of a two legged play off against Trinidad & Tobago to lose themselves.

Fast forward four years later and once again the tiny island of Bahrain located in the Persian Gulf negotiated themselves through four World Cup Qualifying rounds to face World Cup regulars Saudi Arabia in the AFC play-off; a late away goal and Bahrain were still on course to make their first ever World Cup Finals.

To this point Bahrain had played 18 World Cup qualifiers, 8 of those against previous World Cup finalist, Japan (4), Australia (2) and the aforementioned Saudi Arabia in a play-off. Standing in their way were OFC winners of the other half place, New Zealand, who had lived a charmed life to this same point:

2010 most World Cup Qualifying games played

New Zealand were, rightly, handed a bye to the final round in the OFC section to play just 6 qualifiers, home and away against Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu – this clearly raises a conversational piece for another time about FIFA’s qualification process.

Over the two legged play-off Bahrain out played New Zealand with a better level of football but failed to win the tie, losing away 1-0 to a Rory Fallon goal in the 2^nd leg after a goal-less draw in the first leg, Fallon’s Kiwi inclusion is proof FIFA can make changes.

Moreover, in Wellington Bahrain missed a penalty, no sympathy awarded there but they did have what looked like a perfectly legitimate goal disallowed in the last minute – the goal that would have ensured qualification for Bahrain.

New Zealand’s 2010 World Cup qualification is fantastic but when comparing journey’s with Bahrain something feels wrong, whether that is recognised time will tell?

So the Republic of Ireland have World Cup grief, they’re not alone nor are they arguably the worst offended to miss out on next summer’s festival of football. The grief can be further fuelled by highlighting the obvious fact, in terms of quality Ireland are superior to New Zealand, giving pause to a wild idea – instead of making a futile protest to FIFA for an unprecedented move to replay a football match because the officials failed to get one of the key decisions correct, maybe the FAI should bypass FIFA completely and make an application to join the OFC, it will certainly increase Ireland’s chances of future World Cup qualification?

What can FIFA do?

Where will the Guests sit?

Finalising plans for December's World Cup Finals Draw

As the curtain fell on Wednesday 18^th November, Uruguay secured the 32^nd and final qualifying place for next summers FIFA World Cup finals. So after two years in the making, the table is finally laid, the guests are all confirmed, there are no first-timers and all seven previous winners are present so the next item on the World Cup agenda is, where will the guests sit?

As the dust settles and the excitement, for some, slowly edges in to reality, the focus in the long and glorious life of the 2010 World Cup over the next 2 weeks will be one thing, The Draw.

Football draws of any type are always interesting, but a World Cup draw is a fascinating event, starved for four years most World Cup enthusiast will be salivating at the prospect of what will occur in Cape Town on the 4^th December.

Cut through the razzmatazz, over loaded with dignitaries and high profile special guests, the main event in Cape Town will be to create the eight World Cup groups and at some point between now and that moment, FIFA will decided and disclose the 4 pot’s of separation. Each pot may include 8 teams, although if the past is to help gauge the present FIFA may create a special pot, as reserved for Serbia and Montenegro in the WC 2006 draw or a maybe a Pot of 11, as per the 2002 WC draw.

However you choose to classify it, politics, geographical divisions or simple manipulation to massage a route for the best teams to progress to the latter stages of the Tournament, FIFA will craft a unique and plausibly complex way to simply divide 32 in to 8.

FIFA’s rational can be unpredictable, evidence from the resent European play-off seeding demonstrates FIFA’s desire to see the best teams advance as far as the best teams are capable of advancing too under FIFA’s unpredictable rational. Therefore predicting the pools or pots is not always easy, but on this occasion I have a feeling it will be.

Holders Italy are guaranteed a seeded slot

Just like predicting the results from one of those amazingly impressive Excel spreadsheet, that you will no doubt receive via an email on or around Monday 7^th December, predicting/guessing is fun and for fun I predict FIFA will pot something simple like this:

Pot A
South Africa, Brazil, Italy, Spain, The Netherlands, Germany, England, Argentina

Pot A are the seeds and it’s the easiest pot to predict. The Hosts already occupy fixture A1, Brazil, Italy, Germany, Spain and England are guaranteed seeds based on their impressive recent World Cup performances and lofty FIFA world ranking.

Although failure to qualify for the 2002 World Cup, The Netherlands FIFA Ranking should be enough to carry them through, which leaves one spot to be filled by either 2006 World Cup runners-up France or Maradona’s misfits Argentina?

The smart money is on Argentina for one reason alone. Not that Argentina has a better ranking than France, all be it slim. Argentina will get FIFA’s 8^th seeded slot because FIFA will want to avoid the ‘special’ pot reserved for Serbia and Montenegro in WC 2006 draw – not seeding France leaves FIFA with 8 other European teams, its all too convenient to ignore.

One of FIFA’s draw policies will be to ensure no more than two European teams occupy any one group and by seeding Argentina over France, FIFA achieve this; demonstrated as Pot C

Pot B
Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile.

For the first time in World Cup history six teams will compete in the finals representing the continent of Africa, South Africa as hosts and the other five! Add to these the remaining South American qualifiers and FIFA has a very convenience Pot B

Pot A and Pot B correct or whatever pot FIFA choose to group them as, Pot’s C and D decide themselves.  The aforementioned remaining eight European teams form one pot and the final eight make up the final pot of eight.

Pot C
France, Portugal, Serbia, Denmark, Switzerland, Greece, Slovakia, Slovenia

Pot D
United States, Mexico, Honduras, Australia, Korea Republic, Japan, Korea DPK, New Zealand

Kim Jong-Hun, Korea DPK coach

Its possible FIFA may Pot and divide the 32 qualifiers based on a points system combining each qualifiers FIFA’s world ranking and previous World Cup performances, but it’s unlikely.

For once and based on draw history, whether FIFA recognise the fact, this time they have it fairly straight forward; of course they’ll be some delayed confusion permitting the possible combination of South America or the one possible Africa teams being drawn together, but in general the draw structure should be fairly simple.

Whether it is, FIFA will decide?

But whatever they decide, I can see very little to dampen the excitement and joy that a World Cup draw creates and we are just days away now. I’m really looking forward to it, moreover on this occasion as for the first time in my life I have tickets for the finals and when G1 and G3 are named, I’ll finally know who’ll be contesting Match 29, just one of the matches I’ll be blessed to be at.

Yeah maybe my friends are right, I don’t get out much. But by God, I’m so excited about The Draw.